Monday, November 2, 2015

Nash Equilibrium

John Nash

John Nash grew up in Bluefield, West Virginia. His father was an engineer, and his mother a teacher, instructing him to read and learn Latin by the age of four. Like so many brilliant minds, Nash was often shunned by his teachers - in fact his fourth grade teacher claimed he simply was incapable of doing math. In high school, Nash would solve his teachers long ugly proofs, with a simple, tidy, and elegant solution. His brilliance in school landed him the George Westinghouse Award, granting him a full scholarship to Carnegie Institute of Technology where he studied mathematics.

Nash attended grade school at Princeton, where he created the game of Hex and discovered his love and fascination for game theory. In 1950, at the age of 22, Nash earned his PhD. His 28 page dissertation explored non-cooperative games and outlined what would later be revered as the Nash Equilibrium.

Although admired by his colleagues for his incredible mind, Nash did not have the best reputation as a person. In 1951 he began working as faculty at MIT where his colleagues described him as arrogant, haughty, selfish...but brilliant. He had an affair with a nurse, ended up impregnating her, and refused both to put his name on their child's birth certificate and support their child financially. A few years later Nash met Alicia Larde, a physics major at MIT, the married in 1957.

Around the age of 30 Nash was diagnosed with schizophrenia. For over twenty five years Nash struggled with this disease. Twice he was involuntary admitted into hospitals, one time reciving insulin-coma therapy. He was often found wandering around the Princeton campus talking about himself in third person. Twice he ran away to Europe, and threatened to not return. He resigned from MIT and struggled to hold a job. His behavior was bizarre, and he was often aggressive. Alicia divorced him in 1962.

After years of struggling with Schizophrenia, Nash received a job at Brandeis University. He began to see a psychiatrist and started taking medication. He and Alicia remarried. By the 1980's, Nash had slowly begun his recovery from schizophrenia. His brilliance and contributions to the fields of economics and mathematics were recognized in 1994, where, at the age of 66, Nash was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Nash died on May 23, 2015 in a car crash with Alicia.

Figure 1: John Nash

Necessary Background Information

 Up to this point in the semester we have used game theory to strictly analyze games. However, game theory may also be used as a tool to analyze human interactions. We will see how human interactions can be modeled as games - in war, in politics, in law, in divorce, in sports, in agriculture, in economics, in EVERYTHING - but to do so we must first understand some key terminology.

Cooperative Game: Games in which players are working together. Players work together to make a decision (think coalitions).

Non-Cooperative Game: Games in which players are looking after their own individual interest. Players make decisions independently.

All games must contain the following elements:
        i. Set of Players
        ii. Set of actions/strategies for each player
        iii. Payoff/utility for each player based on their action



Figure 2: Game Theory Everywhere


Nash Equilibrium

A Nash Equilibrium is the optimal outcome of a game, such that neither player has an incentive to change their strategy based on what the other player does. So even if the other player changed their strategy, it would not be in your best interest to change your strategy.

Le us think about this in a real life example. Imagine you live in a country that has no form of law enforcement, no police, nothing. A Nash Equilibrium could be symbolized as a law passed, that everyone followed, even though they knew they would receive no punishment for not following this law. 

Let us think about what side of the road you are driving on. Imagine one car is driving in one direction, and the second car in the opposite direction, presumably if both are in the same lane they will crash. I claim, it is both car's best interest to follow the rules of driving in their country, and drive on the specified side of the road - in this example suppose they are driving in America, in which the right side of the road is the specified driving side. Take a look at the payoff matrix in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Driving Road Side
The utility of Driver 1's decision is represented in green, and the utility of Driver 2's decision is represented in blue. If Driver 1 decides to drive on the left hand of the road, Driver 2 would gain the highest utility from driving on the left side of the road (because $1>-1$). If Driver 1 decided to drive on the right side of the road, it would be in Driver 2's best interest to drive on the right side of the road (again $2>-1$). Repeating the logic, with Driver 2, if Driver 2 decides to drive on the left hand side, Driver 1 would also want to drive on the left hand side ($1>-1$). And if Driver 2 decides to drive on the right hand side, Driver 1 would choose to drive on the right hand side ($2>-1$). Hence we have two Nash Equilibriums in this example (Left, Left) and (Right, Right) as seen in Figure 4 below.

Because (Right, Right) yields both players a higher utility ($2>1$), it would be in both drivers best interest to drive on the right side of the road.

Now let us look at Figure 5.
Figure 5: General Theorem for Nash Equilibrium 

In general, (T,L) is a Nash Equilibrium if the following is true:
        i. $a\geq{e}$
        ii. $b\geq{d}$


Real World Application

So far we have used very trivial examples of the Nash Equilibrium. However, the Nash Equilibrium is used everywhere, and with very important decisions. Let us take a look at the decision of the U.S.A and the U.S.S.R to initiate a conflict or to disarm in the Cold War - can the countries reach a Nash Equilibrium?
Figure 6: Nuke?  

Nike and Adidas both come out with a new pair of running shoes, They are face with the decision to spend money on advertising, or to not advertise - what should they do?

Figure 7: Advertise?

Try out these example on your own, and we will go over them collectively in class tomorrow.








Work Cited
http://www.usaheadlinenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/john-nash.jpg
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/nash/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i7p9DNvtjk
http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/game-theory/nash-equilibrium.php

7 comments:

  1. Nice intro, Seneth! I'm looking forward to going over these examples tomorrow. Should be interesting. :)

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  2. Hi Seneth, thanks for your post this was very interesting. It's unbelievable to see yet another example where genius walked hand in hand with insanity. I wonder if schizophrenia played a role in his mathematical discoveries or if both of his "sides" were completely separate. Here is my take on your last question. Both Adidas and Nike will advertise and take the non optimal yet positive payoff. They would both be better off not advertising, but unless they agree to a binding contract that states that they cannot advertise, if a party does not advertise, the other party will be way too tempted to do so and will reap profit before the other party catches on and starts advertising. Once they are both advertising, both parties have no interest in stopping to advertise because they would basically hand an advantage to their competitor on a silver platter.
    Looking forward to our discussion tomorrow!
    Sam

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    1. I guess the key to being smart is to become slightly insane! Its crazy to think about one choice in a situation not changing, even after knowing what the other would do. It really becomes a battle of trying to out smart the other player and because both sides are trying to logically earn the biggest benefit, they both end up screwing each other over almost.

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  3. Hi Seneth. Great post and presentation yesterday! Along with some other topics in this decision theory section, the topic of Nash Equilibrium is very relevant to my final presentation topics. Your post and the discussion we had in class yesterday actually helped with some of the questions and concerns I had with my final paper so far, so I am hoping to use this information to better understand my topic. Thanks!

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  4. Great job Seneth! I thought it was interesting how the Nash equilibrium in a way related to sociolgy. The option to get the optimal outcome is rarely always chosen because it would mean trusting another person, company, country etc. to hold up their end of the bargain, so in today's society we often have to settle for less results to save from worse results if someone were to change there approach after you made your decision. It's cool seeing some of my sociology class in math, they usually don't cross very often!

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  5. Seneth- I thought your presentation was very effectively organized, and the number of examples you gave were very helpful. I particularly enjoyed learning about John Nash--it sounds like he was a serious diva. Regardless of his instability and over-the-top personality, Nash truly revolutionized game theory with his findings. Nash equilibria pervade many different fields of study, including economics, philosophy and theoretical biology.
    My final project is about evolutionary biology, which studies the strategies of evolutionarily successful organisms. One of the ideas central to evolutionary game theory is the Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, or ESS. It turns out that the ESS is a Nash Equilibrium refinement, whereby a population of organisms that demonstrate one phenotypic "strategy" cannot be invaded by mutatant strategies. Cool stuff!

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  6. Hey Seneth, your post and presentation were both great! I really like the way you introduce the basic idea of Nash Equilibrium. And it is very thoughtful of you to show us those hand-drawn pictures. When I was writing my final paper, I realized that Nash Equilibrium is so an important topic that can be applied to many area that one may never think of. I think I get the idea of compute Nash Equilibrium in a two player game with each player has two choices. But in our real life, is it possible to have more than two choice for each player? And if this might be the case, how can we find Nash Equilibrium in such situations?

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